THE PHILOSOPHY OF INCERTO AND POPPERIAN–CONTRARIAN METHODOLOGY OF DECISION-MAKING IN THE INNOVATION ECONOMY

Abstract

The article develops a methodological framework for economic decision-making in the innovation economy under conditions of radical uncertainty, technological discontinuity, and information asymmetry. It substantiates the relevance of integrating the philosophy of Incerto with Popperian and contrarian approaches as an alternative to classical optimization models based on equilibrium, predictability, and known probabilities. The philosophy of Incerto, grounded in the recognition of fundamental epistemological limits and “unknown unknowns,” shifts the focus of decision-making from maximizing expected returns to minimizing catastrophic losses and enhancing system resilience. Within this framework, the Popperian approach operationalizes decision-making by treating economic and innovation strategies as falsifiable hypotheses subject to continuous testing, revision, and learning through error. This logic enables adaptive governance, reduces dogmatic planning, and supports experimentation through real options, pilot projects, and iterative policy design. Complementarily, the contrarian approach addresses behavioral distortions and herd effects by encouraging decisions that deviate from dominant expectations when market consensus is systematically biased. The article demonstrates that the combined Popperian–contrarian methodology allows for the formalization of innovation-related decisions while accounting for uncertainty, nonlinear technological dynamics, and asymmetric payoffs. Special attention is given to its application within the National Innovation System (NIS), where innovation policy is interpreted as a set of hypotheses continuously tested in practice rather than a fixed strategic blueprint. The proposed methodological synthesis enhances the adaptability of innovation policy, mitigates inefficient investment risks, and contributes to the formation of long-term competitive advantages in the context of the innovation and emerging quantum economy.