CHALLENGES AND RISKS OF POLAND AS A REGIONAL LEADER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

Abstract

Over the past three decades, Poland has consistently demonstrated sustainable economic dynamics, which has provided it with the status of an “Eastern European tiger”. The main factors of this growth have been structural reforms, active integration into the European market and diversification of economic sectors. The article examines the main challenges and risks of Poland as one of the leading regional leaders in Central and Eastern Europe. It is substantiated that the modern economic model of Poland demonstrates high stability and dynamics of economic development, however, its further strengthening depends on the state's ability to withstand a complex of internal and external threats. The key demographic risks associated with the reduction of the working-age population and changes in the employment structure are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the problems of energy security, dependence on energy imports and the need to transform the energy sector. The impact of inflationary processes intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis, as well as the structural inertia of the Polish labor market and social inequality, is considered. External political and geoeconomic risks are identified, caused by changes in the security environment in Europe, the need to increase defense spending and the growth of public debt. It is substantiated that the combination of these factors can affect the pace of economic growth, competitiveness and position of Poland in the region. The prospects for Poland to maintain the role of one of the key economic and political centers of Central and Eastern Europe are outlined, provided that structural reforms are carried out, the energy sector is modernized, the labor market is adapted, and effective responses are made to new geoeconomic and security challenges. The modern economy of Poland occupies a leading position among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, forming a significant influence on the development of international business and integration processes in the region. Since the beginning of transformational reforms, Poland has gradually transformed from a country with a predominantly agrarian structure of production into a powerful industrial and investment partner, capable of accumulating significant financial resources and attracting transnational corporations.