Results of retrospective analysis changes of population in the world, predictive assessment and comparison with the trends formed in Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. The article implements the set goal and presents the results of a retrospective study of the dynamics of population formation in Ukraine for the period 1992–2021. In comparison with the indicators on average in the world and for the main parts of the world with a forecast assessment of their changes for 2022–2031. Materials and methods. The data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, as well as the statistical data of the World Bank on population indicators with a forecast assessment of their value for the period 2022–2031 served as materials for the study of the formation of population indicators in Ukraine for a 30-year period (from 1992 to 2021 years). Research methods included: system approach and system analysis, graphical analysis, medical statistical and content analysis. To establish the reliability of the difference between the compared groups, the Student's t-test was used, differences at p<0.05 were considered reliable. The graphic analysis of the formation of the dynamics of the indicator was supplemented by the construction of a logarithmic predictive trend. Software included computer statistical packages Statistica 8.0 and Microsoft Excel. The results of the study showed that over the specified period (1992–2021), the number of people on the planet continued to grow (growth rate +44.21 %). For Ukraine, as a country in the European region, the opposite trend towards a decrease in the population (–20.1 %) was typical for the same period. The further decrease of the population in Ukraine as of 2021, predicted by the World Bank, was due, among other things, to the increase in the absolute number of deaths (+16.01 %), the mortality rate (+38.06 %), and the decrease in the birth rate (–31, 74 %). During the specified period, there was a deepening of negative natural growth, which according to the results of 2021 was –11.2 per 1,000 population, its essential regional features were revealed. Conclusions. With global population growth trends, the population continues to decrease in Ukraine, the trends of which have been found to be stable as of 2021. With the preservation and growth of the identified trends, and especially in the conditions of armed conflict on the territory of our country, the threat of the impossibility of reproducing the population naturally, conditions for the further growth of depopulation, which requires systematic state measures to overcome the negative trends that have formed.