Risks to the supply of quality medicines to the population of Ukraine under conditions of transformation in international pharmaceutical trade and digitalization

Abstract

Purpose of the Study. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risks associated with the declining availability of quality medicinal products and medical devices for the population of Ukraine under the conditions of transformation in international pharmaceutical trade, socio-humanitarian crises, and the digitalization of healthcare systems.Materials and Methods. The object of the study is the medicine supply system in Ukraine under disrupted global supply chains.The research methodology is based on a comprehensive approach that includes comparative analysis of international strategies, case studies of practices used by leading pharmaceutical companies, and statistical analysis of official data on imports, investment programs, and API market structure. The sources of information include official reports from international organizations (WTO, WHO, EFCG), national statistics, regulatory initiative documents (HERA, ACAA, PLI), and analytical research by companies such as IQVIA and McKinsey.Research Results. It was found that the transformation of the global pharmaceutical market is accompanied by trade regionalization, rising tariff barriers, price pressure on APIs, and stricter GMP certification requirements. Ukraine, which depends on imported medicines for more than 70% of its supply, faces increased risks of supply disruptions, especially in wartime conditions.The critical importance of implementing digital tools for monitoring the circulation of medicinal products is emphasized. International adaptation strategies (EU, USA, China, India) were analyzed, and the need for Ukraine to localize production and integrate into regional logistics platforms was identified.Conclusions. The global pharmaceutical system is shifting toward a new paradigm – from centralized global production to resilient regional models. For Ukraine, key priorities include the development of local manufacturing, digitalization of logistics, harmonization with European standards, and the formation of a national pharmaceutical security strategy. Ensuring access to quality medicines for the population must remain a core objective of national health policy in the context of global crises.