EVALUATION OF THE DYNAMICS OF PREVENTABLE HOSPITALIZATION OF CHILDREN
Keywords:
запобіжна госпіталізація, госпіталізація з приводу причин, які можна лікувати амбулаторно, діти, прогнозуванняAbstract
Purpose − to analyze the preventable hospitalization of children in Lviv region (Ukraine) during 2006–2017, and to predict its rates in the short-term perspective.
Materials and methods. Hospitalization indices of children of the region were analyzed for five ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (intestinal infections, pneumonia, bronchial asthma, acute otitis media and kidney infections), chosen by experts and mentioned separately in reports of health care institutions of Lviv region (Ukraine) on their activities. Predictions of hospitalization rates were performed using the exponential smoothing method of Holt for two parameters.
Results. Comparison of the average rates of preventable hospitalization of children in the region during the two six-year periods (2006–2011 and 2012–2017) revealed their increase due to intestinal infections (from 66.74±6.520/000 to 104.5± 7.450/000, p<0.01) and decrease due to acute otitis media (from 18.5±0.360/000 to 15.9±0.940/000, p<0.05) and bronchial asthma (from 43.8±0.690/000 to 39.5±1.570/000, p<0.05). The average duration of one hospitalization case had decreased for kidney infections (from 38.2±1.05 to 34.3±1.50 days, p<0.01), bronchial asthma (from 10.75±0.21 to 9.75±0.18 days, p<0.01) and acute otitis media (9.02±0.16 to 8.34±0.19 days, p<0.05).
Conclusions. During the next five years the preventable hospitalization rates in children are forecasted to increase for intestinal infections, decrease for bronchial asthma and acute otitis media and stabilize for pneumonia.
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