CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH AS AN INTEGRAL DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATOR IN UKRAINE: A RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Demographic processes are among the key determinants of a country’s socio-economic development, the formation of its labour potential, and the reproduction of the population. Natural population increase is an important demographic indicator, serving as an integral characteristic of the relationship between birth and death rates and enabling an assessment of the population’s capacity to reproduce its size. Regional differences in demographic indicators, manifested and measured across countries and continents, are increasingly becoming a subject of discussion, research, and planning within international population programmes initiated by the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the World Bank. In Ukraine, the problem of negative natural population growth became systemic long before the onset of full-scale armed aggression. The combination of high mortality and declining birth rates resulted in a persistent depopulation trend, which manifested itself at both the national and regional levels. Objective: to conduct a retrospective analysis of the conditions underlying the formation of natural population growth in Ukraine as an integral demographic indicator, to identify the main trends in its dynamics, and to determine regional differences in this indicator. Materials and methods. The study was based on official statistical reporting data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine covering the period from 2002 to 2021. The analysis included the main demographic indicators characterizing the natural movement of the population, namely the birth rate and mortality rate per 1,000 population, the absolute numbers of live births and deaths, and the natural population growth rate. The study employed medical and statistical methods, content analysis, and graphical modelling. A retrospective approach was used to assess changes in the main demographic indicators over time and to identify the conditions contributing to the formation of natural population growth. Regional differences were also assessed using data for the regions of Ukraine and the city of Kyiv. Results. The study demonstrated that birth and mortality rates are the principal components determining the formation of natural population growth. The retrospective analysis revealed a persistently unfavorable mortality pattern in Ukraine compared with the global level. In 2021, the mortality rate in Ukraine reached 18,5 per 1,000 population, compared with 8,7 per 1,000 globally. Moreover, the mortality rate in Ukraine increased from 15,7 per 1,000 population in 2002 to 18,5 per 1,000 in 2021, indicating a long-term unfavorable trend. The absolute number of deaths also increased during the analyzed period, from 756,770 in 2002 to 810,724 in 2021. At the same time, a substantial decline in fertility was identified. The birth rate increased from 8,1 per 1,000 population in 2002 to 11,4 in 2012, followed by a persistent decline, reaching 6,5 per 1,000 population in 2021. Thus, the combination of high mortality and declining birth rates created increasingly unfavorable conditions for population reproduction. The natural population growth rate remained negative throughout the analyzed period and deteriorated from –7.6 per 1,000 population in 2002 to –11.2 per 1,000 in 2021. The findings indicate that depopulation processes in Ukraine had developed well before the beginning of the armed conflict and were associated primarily with the longterm imbalance between mortality and fertility. The analysis of regional characteristics demonstrated substantial territorial differences in natural population growth. In 2021, the difference between the extreme regional values of the indicator reached 3.5-fold and was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Relatively lower rates of population decline were observed predominantly in the western regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, whereas the most pronounced negative natural population growth was recorded in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava regions. These findings confirm the presence of pronounced regional differences in the demographic conditions affecting population reproduction. Conclusions. The retrospective analysis confirms that the unfavorable natural population growth in Ukraine is the result of long-term demographic processes characterized by persistently high mortality and a substantial decline in birth rates. The negative natural population growth observed in all regions reflects a prolonged depopulation trend that emerged before the armed conflict. The continuation of armed conflict is expected to further aggravate these demographic trends and complicate the already unfavorable population situation. Further research should focus on an integrated assessment of the sex-age structure of the population, fertility, life expectancy at birth, and other demographic determinants, with particular attention to regional differences and their transformation under conditions of prolonged social and demographic change.